Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes
0.765 GNOT
No
0.235 GNOT
Status
Open until 9 December 2026
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Source
- Polymarket condition
0x9b1a03b41a1a68c209e9c3caf3d8af3f878420d6dbe8cb8afffd66049e73b114 - Rules hash
e80026475de13e4f5a81ff0b5a92f51dcdf4ccfe5cdd4af1274dbf8b21b8abac, the SHA-256 of the question and the rules above - Oracle, fixed for this market: g1hsxx0r86afsrwxkf38kqq5zursfrgjmp35fcvy
Record
- 1 trade, 96.00 GNOT bought
- Collateral 111.00 GNOT
- Listed on 14 October 2026
Quotes
| Published, UTC | Yes, GNOT | No, GNOT |
|---|---|---|
| 23 October 2026, 04:41 | 0.765 | 0.235 |
| 23 October 2026, 00:18 | 0.745 | 0.255 |
| 22 October 2026, 20:31 | 0.755 | 0.245 |
| 22 October 2026, 16:36 | 0.765 | 0.235 |
| 21 October 2026, 00:19 | 0.805 | 0.195 |
| 20 October 2026, 13:10 | 0.815 | 0.185 |
| 19 October 2026, 16:37 | 0.805 | 0.195 |
| 19 October 2026, 13:10 | 0.795 | 0.205 |
| 18 October 2026, 04:42 | 0.785 | 0.215 |
| 17 October 2026, 04:42 | 0.775 | 0.225 |
