Will 2 Fed rate hikes happen in 2026?

Buy Yes or No on 67

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).

Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.

For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).

This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.

Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Source

• Polymarket condition 0xff8ae213f43c3c61299bafb0b153b45d6e112f515601b71b59816de6908321f4
• Rules hash bb7b80de2aa97ed846102a33e91409d154ddca338210067c7dad39d9a5f6b157, the SHA-256 of the question and the rules above
• Oracle, fixed for this market: g1hsxx0r86afsrwxkf38kqq5zursfrgjmp35fcvy

Record

• 1 trade, 8.00 GNOT bought
• Collateral 12.00 GNOT
• Listed on 15 October 2026

Quotes

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